In this episode, Hilary Langer met with Dr. Antonius Gagern, the Executive Director of the Carbon to Sea Initiative, for a lively conservation about a hot topic: the promises and sensitivities of tinkering with the ocean’s chemistry to enable it to store more carbon dioxide. Initial research on ocean alkalinity enhancement supports its potential as a significant means of capturing carbon. Carbon to Sea is a $50M non-profit effort that brings together leading funders and researchers to explore ocean alkalinity enhancement. The area is gaining increasing attention and traction, as evidenced by the White House’s launch of a “Fast-Track Action Committee” on Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal. Within the past year, the U.S. federal government has put out about $100 million in grants to accelerate research in the area, including $23.4M from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Researchers and funders are balancing the urgency of action with the need to ensure that any intervention is a clear win for the oceans they seek to protect.
In this episode, Hilary Langer met with Dr. Antonius Gagern, the Executive Director of the Carbon to Sea Initiative, for a lively conservation about a hot topic: the promises and sensitivities of tinkering with the ocean’s chemistry to enable it to store more carbon dioxide. Initial research on ocean alkalinity enhancement supports its potential as a significant means of capturing carbon. Carbon to Sea is a $50M non-profit effort that brings together leading funders and researchers to explore ocean alkalinity enhancement. The area is gaining increasing attention and traction, as evidenced by the White House’s launch of a “Fast-Track Action Committee” on Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal. Within the past year, the U.S. federal government has put out about $100 million in grants to accelerate research in the area, including $23.4M from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Researchers and funders are balancing the urgency of action with the need to ensure that any intervention is a clear win for the oceans they seek to protect.
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Episode recorded May 15, 2024
Chad Reed: I'm Chad Reed.
Hillary Langer: I'm Hillary Langer.
Gil Jenkins: I'm Gil Jenkins.
Chad: This is Climate Positive.
Dr. Antonius Gagern: There's, I think, a good movie version of this and a bad movie version of this. The bad movie version includes us not looking under every rock to understand the potential solutions to the challenges we are facing. Good movie solution includes an honest and transparent evaluation of the options at hand so that we can make informed decisions about next steps.
Hilary: The acceleration of climate change and its impact on the oceans has prompted an increasing number of scientists to evaluate interventions they might have flat out rejected a decade ago. One area that’s attracting a lot of attention is ocean alkalinity enhancement, or the addition of substances to the ocean to increase its ability to absorb carbon and store it for tens of thousands of years. As the Executive Director of the Carbon to Sea Initiative, Dr Antonius Gagern is spearheading studies to better understand both the promises and the risks of tinkering with marine chemistry in an effort to protect the long term health of the oceans he loves.
Hilary: Dr. Antonius Gagern, thank you so much for joining us today. It's an honor to have you on the show.
Antonius: It's my pleasure to be here. Thank you.
Hilary: Before we get into the Carbon to Sea initiative, I'd love to hear a bit more about your background, and what drew you into the space of that intersection of ocean ecology and economics. What motivated you to work in this field?
Antonius: I got started as a marine ecologist. I spent a few years studying biology, and then really got excited about marine biology, and marine ecology. What I did first was focus on research on reefs, and in particular, the interaction of a small snails, worm snails, and how they were feeding on the detritus that was coming down the web, and how they would interact. It is just absolutely fascinating to see the tiny interactions that are happening on the reef. I got a bit interested first in the organismic world, of the small world, and then little by little, in the interactions in the broader food web.
Ultimately, ended up getting really interested in fisheries, and spent a while working on fisheries, population dynamics. I spent some time in Galápagos doing my master's thesis on the population dynamics of the local group or fishery. From there, got really fascinated just by the interaction of people and nature. Coming from Galápagos, and having done this work on fisheries, I decided to pursue a PhD in fisheries economics because that is a field where really biology, and economics, and social science, and politics, and finance all come together. That was just something that really, really fascinated me.
Hilary: How did you decide to engage with Carbon to Sea initiative?
Antonius: That is a bit of a long story. I'll try to tell you the short version of it. I was working for many years as a consultant at CEA Consulting, which advises large foundations on their grant-making on environmental policy, and management, and finance. One day, one of our clients came to us, and asked if there's a [unintelligible 00:02:07] for ocean-based carbon dioxide removal, and that ended up on my desk. I thought, "What a terrible idea. The ocean is already suffering from too much CO2, which is a weak acid, and is acidifying the oceans. Why on earth would we want to add more CO2 to the oceans, and store it there?" That just didn't seem the right solution.
Being a good consultant, I dug in, and started at zero. We start with Wikipedia, and that was in 2018, and reached out to all of the people who at that point were working on ocean-based carbon dioxide removal, which were maybe five, or six, or seven. Got absolutely fascinated by the subject because the ocean has a number of incredibly powerful carbon pumps that are removing billions and billions of tons of CO2 from the atmosphere.
In fact, without the ocean, the climate wouldn't be as it is. We as humans, for example, couldn't live terrestrially on the planet if it wasn't for the ocean's ability to absorb CO2. My initial work as a consultant in that space translated into several years of my consulting work for different foundations including ClimateWorks, and including Oceankind, big foundations in that space in the beginning.
Ultimately, I was approached by Mike Schroepfer, the former CTO at Facebook who had just launched the climate program of his new foundation at Additional Ventures, and had himself come into the conclusion that ocean-based carbon dioxide removal might be an area really interesting for his own grant-making because it showed so much potential, and so few people were actively engaging in the space.
Together with him and my colleague then, Sasha Post, we took a step back and thought, "We could either just build a small program from within Additional Ventures to continue doing some grant funding here and there on science and tech, or we try to make this something bigger." At the time, I was the only person who was spending 100% of their time on philanthropic solutions to ocean-based carbon dioxide removal.
We got a number of the best foundations in the world who have long history and experience working on ocean and climate solutions, to join a bigger effort, which we first incubated within Additional Ventures, but then spun out into its own entity that is now called Carbon to Sea. In a way, Carbon to Sea is only year-old because that's when we finally found the time to put up a web page and kick it off, but it had been in the making for quite some time before that.
Hilary: With Carbon to Sea initiative, my understanding is that it involves an emphasis on bioengineering, and tinkering a bit with the different inputs that are in the ocean so that it can absorb more carbon. This gets a lot of backlash and I think people are very scared of it, probably for some of the reasons that you are hesitant to engage in it initially. What is it that convinced you that this actually was a space that could make good ecological sense?
Antonius: That's a great question. I think there are a number of different answers to this. The first one is that when I was working in the philanthropic space, trying to figure out ways how to help the ocean through coastal resource management, fisheries management, biodiversity conservation, in every single assessment of the problem, the ocean always came out as a victim to climate change. One really important set of papers that came out in the 2015, 2018, 2020 range, describe the cumulative human impact on the ocean.
This work just consistently showed again and again how the impacts of climate change, which are temperature increase, acidity increase, deoxygenation and sea level rise were not only the biggest threats to ocean life, but also the fastest growing. For me, I was really excited in the possibility of looking at it from the other direction, not seeing the ocean only as a victim to climate change, but also as a potential solution to climate change. The other, I think important point to make here is we live in a scary time because climate change is not fun in the business as usual scenario.
If we don't do anything and stick our heads in the sand, it's going to be terrible. Any way that we can try and look for solutions that go beyond the much, much, much needed emission reductions is something that I think is worth properly evaluating and helping shape. There's, I think, a good movie version of this and a bad movie version of this. The bad movie version includes us not looking under every rock to understand the potential solutions to the challenges we are facing. Good movie solution includes an honest and transparent evaluation of the options at hand so that we can make informed decisions about next steps.
Hilary: Let's go with the good movie version. Tell us what Carbon to Sea is doing and actively investigating in right now.
Antonius: Carbon to Sea is a nonprofit effort that brings together leading funders and world class scientists to explore ocean alkalinity enhancement as a carbon dioxide removal approach, which strengthens the ocean's natural ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. We fund and partner with research institutions around the world and innovative companies researching and testing OAE.
We built the capacity to try and evaluate whether ocean alkalinity enhancement can safely remove and store billions of pounds of CO2 per year. Top tier scientists from around the world are assessing the costs and benefits and environmental impacts of each OAE pathways, of which there are many. Our job is to help them and enable their work. That includes direct funding, it includes field building, it includes policy and advocacy, and much more.
Hilary: The ocean alkalinity enhancement approach has been equated to giving the ocean a giant Pepto-Bismol or antacid. What does the science look like? How does this work?
Antonius: I will try to describe the science of ocean alkalinity enhancement without going into too much chemistry. Essentially is this, the ocean already contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere. The reason is that over hundreds of millions of years through wind and rain and weather, the rock that lies on the shore and on the mountains washes into the ocean, and that rock has alkaline properties as opposed to acidic. With the addition of alkalinity in the ocean, what happens is that the CO2 that is dissolved in water as a gas because it enters the ocean from the air, is transformed into something that is called carbonates and bicarbonates.
That is a very, very permanent form of storage for a carbon. As a result of that transformation, CO2 from the atmosphere sinks into the ocean and so on. After observing the very slow weathering process of alkalinity washing into the ocean, and storing carbon, as carbons bicarbonates in billions and billions and billions of tons, people have looked at this and thought, "Well, what would it look like for us to mimic this process and accelerate it?"
That's where the ocean alkalinity enhancement idea comes from, and yes, you have antacids that have similar alkaline properties. It's a nice soundbite, although I wouldn't compare alkalinity enhancement in the ocean, necessarily to laxatives.
Hilary: [laughs] Is it correct to say that as you raise the pH of the ocean, there's this tension between the air and the surface of the ocean where it wants to reach an equilibrium with the carbon. That then triggers this chemical reaction that pulls the carbon into the ocean, and then transforms it into these inorganic ions that are very stable?
Antonius: Yes, that is right. That is exactly right. You have a constant interaction between the air and the water, and gases, like CO2 will interchange. Go back and forth between water and the atmosphere, depending on the concentration gradient until they are in equilibrium. If you add emissions to the atmosphere, there will be a concentration gradient that is stronger in the atmosphere for CO2 than in the ocean, to simplify the process here a little bit. Over time, all of the CO2 that we're adding to the atmosphere will ultimately end up in the ocean, but not in human relevant timescales.
The idea here is that if we raise the PH ever so slightly by adding alkalinity, the CO2 that has dissolved already in the ocean, is removed by transforming it into something else, and as a result, more CO2 from the atmosphere can sink in.
Hilary: We hear a lot about the acidification of the oceans because of the CO2 that's in the atmosphere and then pulled into the ocean. Does this address that challenge as well?
Antonius: It might locally and temporarily address that as well, but once the equilibration process has been complete, there is no change in the pH. You might imagine doing that constantly, in the same spot a really long period of time, and as a result, always maintaining a slightly higher pH and reducing the acidity locally. The long-term effect is that CO2 move from the atmosphere into the ocean, without doing what it usually does, without acidifying it.
Hilary: What does this actually look like on the ground when you're funding these different experiments and initiatives to try this out? I know there have been some work in Halifax. Can you walk us through what that would look like if I were an observer in the city?
Antonius: Oh, yes, absolutely. The work that we fund is both focused on the science and the technology development. On the science, there is laboratory mesocosm and field work. In laboratory research, you're really trying to understand in highly controlled settings, what happens to a body of water if you add a little bit of this, or if you add a little bit of that? That includes the efficiency questions of how much CO2 is actually removed as a result of a bowl of alkalinity added to a beaker? It also includes questions of safety and unexpected biogeochemical feedbacks that might actually reduce the efficacy of this process.
In the laboratory, we are establishing some of the very basics of the science. Then it goes to the mesocosm setting, which is a large plastic tube in the middle of the ocean, that imitates the conditions of the oceans, but still in a very controlled setting, and observes whether the things you observed in the laboratory still hold true in a more realistic setting. Then you move into the field, because the field is-- There is no laboratory or mesocosm setting that can reproduce or imitate the complexity of the real world.
Everybody from the White House to NOAA, to researchers working in this field, everybody agrees that a really important next step right now is to bring this into the field. We're funding [unintelligible 00:14:50]. Long way of answering your question, if you go to Halifax, what you'll see is a partnership between a private sector group called Planetary and a university called Dalhousie University.
The private sector Planetary is adding through the outflow of a power plant, a material called brucite or magnesium hydroxide. This is a very typical form of alkalinity that you can also commercially buy. As they add the alkalinity through the outflow into the Bay of the Bedford Basin, the University of Dalhousie brings all of their observational capabilities to bear, to measure the pH and the dissolved inorganic carbon and the particular pressure, CO2, et cetera, et cetera, to understand whether the theory of CO2 removal on paper holds true also in the field.
Gil: Climate Positive is produced by HASI, a leading climate investment firm that actively partners with clients to deploy real assets that facilitate the energy transition. To learn more please visit HASI.com
Hilary: What are the conversations like on the ground, at the community level to get people comfortable with this, especially in a place like Halifax where the whole culture is so tied to the ocean and the fisheries? How do you get people to support this?
Antonius: Community engagement is one of our biggest priorities, and it's hard because this is a very, very early stage technology, which happens at a very small research scale, and there's not a lot of precedent for that. What we are funding and collaborating in, and what also the University of Dalhousie and Planetary have done a tremendous job in Halifax is just to involve different stakeholders in the community very early on, and brought them along to inform, solicit their input and hear them out.
That was everything from town halls to library events to media engagements to really inform the community of what was happening. Over time, we will learn more about what it really is that different people in the community care about and how to engage them productively.
Hilary: Have you found local champions as you've done this outreach?
Antonius: Yes. We have found a number of local champions, but this is really work that has been led by Planetary and Dalhousie, so I cannot speak in detail to that work.
Hilary: In a way, if you're adding some of these substances to the water that's going out from power plants already, you're already getting some impacts of human intervention with the harbor and with the ocean. Is there an appreciation for the fact that some of this is already happening just with different intent?
Antonius: It's a good question. The perception of most people is that the ocean is an untouched place that we should not interfere with. The reality is that there is a lot of commercial activity happening in the ocean, and the Bedford Basin in Halifax is a good example of that. Beyond power plants, you have runoffs and you have fisheries, you have transportation, and so on. That's not new and that's not particular to the Bedford Basin.
I think a broader point that is important for all of us to embrace over time is that there is a business as usual scenario where we don't interfere, and there's a scenario in which we try to figure out how to safely and efficiently solve the challenges we're currently faced with. I have over the years, very much come to the conclusion that similar to biomedical research, we are at a point right now where we are facing a bit of a sick patient that we have to figure out really, really quickly harmless solutions to their recovery.
Hilary: Tied to this, hopefully, some of these experiments will be successful and will lead to solutions that can be implemented at scale. If you could wave your magic wand and put certain guardrails in place to ensure that any solutions that are experimented on or implemented result in a net positive for the people, ecology, and planet, what kinds of rules or guardrails would you like to see?
Antonius: Thanks for this question. Right now, what puts me at a lot of ease is that all of the startups and buyers, if you will, working in this space, are incredibly transparent about what they're doing, what they're learning, what they're struggling with because they all understand that if they make one wrong step in the wrong direction, it is going to backlash and it is going to set this entire field backwards.
Now, to your question of the magic wand, there are two really important things that have to happen within the next couple of years and that we are supporting at Carbon to Sea. One is a community quantification standard, which is just a fancy way of saying we need an agreement about the ways in which we measure and predict the CO2 uptake as a result of the identity addition that we are performing. It's not easy.
The second part is a framework for environmental impact assessments and monitoring. The magic wand that I would wave is not so much the adherence early on to very specific criteria so much as the establishment of clear guardrails and rules that become generally accepted and enforced by the entire supply chain. That includes the quantification standards and that includes the environmental impact standards.
Hilary: What quantification standards or measurement principles are you following at this point? How do you quantify the carbon impact of these interventions?
Antonius: What we are doing since we are a nonprofit and are not there for any return is we're trying to learn as much as possible about the system to determine what a good quantification standard may look like, because we just don't know. If you take a look at what we are doing day in, day out, much of our focus right now is on getting field trials on the way where in the real world we can observe with the best sensors and models available what is happening in the real world when you add alkalinity and how much of it you can actually measure.
Just to give you an example, the best sensors in the world right now-- and they're good, best sensors in the world are almost incapable of picking up a signal of an alkalinity addition that is further than 10, 20, 30 meters away from the point of addition, if it is a spot addition, one time addition. That tells you something about the difficulty of directly measuring this impact in real deployments, which means that the use of models becomes incredibly important and the calibration of models and the trust in models and the constant recalibration advancement direct observations and this combination of direct observations and good models is what is ultimately going to make up a strong monitoring verification reporting system.
Hilary: Despite the current status of being able to quantify this and develop the sensors, what are the estimates of the total impact that the ocean alkalinity enhancement could have worldwide?
Antonius: There are different ways how that is quantified and conceptualized. One way of looking at it is to say if there were no economic and logistical constraints, by how much could we increase the alkalinity of the ocean without triggering what is called secondary precipitation or without getting to a point where all of a sudden the efficiency decreases of that addition. That is on the order of 5 to 10 to 15 billion tons a year. A massive amount.
In theory, based on these models, ocean alkalinity enhancement could be the solution to the entire climate problem. Now, in reality, you have to add all sorts of constraints from economic to logistical to sustainability constraints.
Hilary: For some of the more realistic models, what are the inputs that you would be using? What are the raw materials that would be needed to brought to site?
Antonius: Yes, there are different ocean alkalinity enhancement pathways, and they broadly break into two categories. One where you take minerals, grind them up, and add them to seawater. Another set of approaches where you electrochemically split seawater into an acid and the base and then use the power of that acid-base relationship to drive change in the carbon chemistry. One example of electrochemical approaches would be that you split seawater into an acid at the base and you remove the acid, you dispose of it, you neutralize it in some way, and you reintroduce the base into the ocean.
The net effect there would have been acid removal rather than alkalinity addition. You basically have these two different types. Now, within each one of them there are multiple very different pathways. If you think about mineral addition alone, you have different types of minerals. You have minerals that are based on syndicate rock, and you have minerals that are based on carbonate rock. Each one of them has very different characteristics that make them more attractive or less attractive in one circumstance versus another circumstance. Figuring out for each one of these approaches, how cost-effective, how scalable, how safe they are is a core mission and goal of our organization
Hilary: Over the next 12 months, what are you most excited about with Carbon to Sea?
Antonius: What I'm really excited about is the fact that we just grew our team to double the size of what it was just a few months ago. We are just set up as an organization that is highly, highly targeted at identifying what the field of ocean alkalinity enhancement needs, both in terms of de-risking it, asking all of the questions of safety, efficiency and permanence and measurability, but also in terms of the guardrails and enablers that have to be in place for this to become a mature and responsible sector.
What I'm really excited about in the next 12 months is to move from a place of uncertainty and ambiguity that we are in right now to removing as much of this uncertainty and ambiguity through, for example, the establishment of quantification standards, through the establishments of environmental impact assessment frameworks and through very clear guidances and lessons learned on community engagement. There is an enormous amount of work ahead of us, and I'm frankly very excited about it.
Hilary: Quick questions in the hot seat. My favorite way to spend time on or in the ocean is?
Antonius: Oh, surfing. For sure, surfing.
Hilary: Then since you recently moved back to Berlin, the best way to enjoy spring in Berlin is?
Antonius: Just walk through the entire city. Everybody is so happy that winter is over finally.
Hilary: Then the key to my productivity is?
Antonius: Motivation, inspiration by the people that surround me.
Hilary: A group or a person that I would love to collaborate with?
Antonius: I'd love to collaborate more with Ken Caldera who is one of the leading figures in this space and has been for a long time. Ken, if you're out there, let's do more work together.
Hilary: Then finally, for me, climate-positive means?
Antonius: For me, climate-positive means I am very excited about the people that are currently putting their talent and passion and time into solving this problem. Some of the most brilliant people that I've ever worked with who are dedicating their time to it and just seeing the rigor and humility with which they approach this question, right now is very inspiring to me. Yes, I think that would be my answer here.
Hilary: Wonderful. Thank you so much, Antonius, for joining us today.
Antonius: Of course. Thanks for having me on the podcast.
Hilary: If you enjoyed this week’s episode, please leave us a leave a rating and review on Apple and Spotify. This really helps us reach more listeners.
You can also let us know what you thought via Twitter @ClimatePosiPod or email us at climatepositive@hasi.com
I'm Hilary Langer.
And this is Climate Positive.